In Theory Would This Succeed?

[OmegaGMequation]

Suppose you had some type of forcasting model that can accurately forcast the openning "Against the Spread" line for: Super Bowl Game
Pro Bowl Game
Arena Bowl Game
WNBA ALLSTAR GAME
AND
Either, BOTH, ONE OR NONE season to season depending on the model's statistical structure of the NFC/AFC CONFERENCE CHAMP GAMES same with ARENA LEAGUE CONF CHAMP GAMES.

Would one be able to sell such a model other than betting these games themselves?

If so how would one go about selling the model?

Or,

Betting these games on a big money scale be the better route?

And,

How would one go about finding partners and financing for such a venture?


ANY THOUGHTS ON THIS WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED!!!!!!

 

[OmegaGMequation]

Forget "theory". How should one approach this gold mine?

 

[OmegaGMequation]

bump

 

[OmegaGMequation]

Anybody can put their two cents in.

 

[PercocetThreat]

I guess your best bet (no pun intended) would be to buy some sort of advertising on a gambling related website. I don't see how you would get all that many buyers without first proving that your model is effective, unless you're a hell of a salesman. Other than that, loading up on the games is surely the easiest way to make money, assuming that your model is an accurate predictor. Good luck!!

 

[OmegaGMequation]

Thanks a bunch perc. I quess I'll just post those plays on here and tout the model as an accurate predictor for those games and load up on them as well.

 

[OmegaGMequation]

Anyone else have inout on this?:howdy:

 

[jarhead60]

If you have a sucessful model, the easiest way to $ is to bet. But what is sucessful? A 55% win rate, a 60% win rate, a 65% win rate? Why would one need financing for a model that works? If the model works, and you sell picks, the lines would move (sooner or later) and you would not have an advantage.

 

[OmegaGMequation]

keep the inputs coming in guys. Thanks.

 

[OmegaGMequation]

More comments welcomed...:howdy:

 

[jarhead60]

omega..

I also have a model for the NFL. It does about 60%. I find talking about models is more interesting that the actual games.

I can't figure out how to e-mail you at this site. If you want to discuss your model, please e-mail me You can e-mail me thur the www.talksports site where my name is jarhead60.

Good luck, bob

 

[trentmoney]

i wouldn't try to market and sell your service... too many obstacles created such as website issues, credit card setups, updating your site, advertising, tax implications, etc...

what i would do, which is what i did in my season-long thread, is just to post and document your plays for a season... if you're a winner, not only will you make $$$, but you have direct proof of your successes, with which you can then market to investors and financers...

an investor can lose $$$ on a legitimate business just as quick as investing in a professional gamblers picks, and the payout is most likely much less...

i kept a thread in cfb and hit over 60% (26-17) +18 units... units could be for any amount... mine were for $250, so i cleared just under 5k w/ bowl season left to play... so with proper investors my units could have been 1k which would have cleared 18k or 5k which would have cleared 90k in just 3 months!!! with a good bowl season i will start to pitch my plays to investors in hopes of upping my unit plays to 500-1k for next season

if you document and prove your winning system it shouldn't be a problem for you to get financing... just set up a business model (i can describe mine to you) and your documented record and pitch it to some people who have access to liquid cash and are willing to take a risk

good luck

:toast:

 

[OmegaGMequation]

Excellent trent Thanks. Started testing this new model for serious weekly betting and seems to fit NBA, NFL, so far with the bowl games on deck. So far so good. 12-4 since last Thurs. games. Only can wait and see just how successful this new found model fairs.:smoking:

 

[trentmoney]

Excellent trent Thanks. Started testing this new model for serious weekly betting and seems to fit NBA, NFL, so far with the bowl games on deck. So far so good. 12-4 since last Thurs. games. Only can wait and see just how successful this new found model fairs.:smoking:

saw your nba picks last night... nice job!! interested in what your model values... line or stats??

if you keep hitting like last night hoops you should have no problem finding investors... how much principal are you forecasting that you will need??

 

[OmegaGMequation]

If it were the stats that had any value I think we would all be rich. You know the old saying "It's the economy stupid" I like to say to gamblers who just lost by a half point "IT'S THE POINTSPREAD STUPID!!" LOL

when I started this thread I really only had a model that fit only those games with about 6 seasons of data to back it up. I think it was perhaps a few hours after starting this thread that I came across this model while prepping spread sheets for the CFB bowl games and decided to start testing it in real time instead of back testing past seasons for the moment. Of course a back test would more than likely increase my understanding of this new found model that seems to fit perhaps all leagues involved with lines

Tell you what gonna see if I can find something in the GS/HOUST game the model favors. I'll post it right here before I go to work tonight. Stay tuned.

 

[trentmoney]

If it were the stats that had any value I think we would all be rich. You know the old saying "It's the economy stupid" I like to say to gamblers who just lost by a half point "IT'S THE POINTSPREAD STUPID!!" LOL

when I started this thread I really only had a model that fit only those games with about 6 seasons of data to back it up. I think it was perhaps a few hours after starting this thread that I came across this model while prepping spread sheets for the CFB bowl games and decided to start testing it in real time instead of back testing past seasons for the moment. Of course a back test would more than likely increase my understanding of this new found model that seems to fit perhaps all leagues involved with lines

Tell you what gonna see if I can find something in the GS/HOUST game the model favors. I'll post it right here before I go to work tonight. Stay tuned.

i know what you're saying, but some people don't know how to use statistical analysis...

for instance, you could look at nfl teams who avg more rush yds than opponents and think it might give you an edge, but after research and due dilligence, let's say you find it only beats the spread 52%... but maybe someone w/ a better eye for stat anal will take those teams that outrush and outperform in ypc, or outrush by a certain amt, or outrush and outdefend, etc... and find a model where teams that fit this criteria hit 62%!!!

so yes the stats are there for all of us, but not everyone knows exactly how to use these resources...

or maybe in the first instance that only hit 52%, if they applied that to dogs it moves up to 59%, or dogs of more than 3 pts 64%!!! so here you would have stat anal AND line analysis...

just curious what criteria you were basing your model on... i have some models that i plan to use in the bowls as well

good luck

:toast:

 

[OmegaGMequation]

Hey trent, i'm pressed for time so here goes. First, I had tonights NFL wrong mainly because I thought so but this is a division class game so I had to break down this class another step.

Seattle -9
UND 45 (it has gone down to 38 now due to the weather I guess)

Houston +3.5
UND 195

Hope this revised spreadsheet for the division games is the one. My 4 losses were in the division class and am taking a stab at this adjustment.

See you later. Good luck

 

[OmegaGMequation]

Hey trent, gonna have at least one pick for NBA tonight maybe 3. I'm attempting to make my $12.50 prize money from betjamaicas.com pick 12 contest last week grow. At $79.30 now with a $10 13 tease tease to pay $750 but not counting on it to hit though would not be to surprise that it does hit. Now an opportunity is in front of me with tonight NBA action. be back to post by 6:30.

 

[OmegaGMequation]

Things are looking very good with this "experimental model"

 

[OmegaGMequation]

Playing these games today according to the model:

ARKANSAS -4(BOUGHT 2 POINTS DOWN FROM -6)

DALLAS -3.5

SAN ANTONIO -16(WILL BUY POINTS OFF THIS LINE IF 16+)

BOSTON +2

:toast: